Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Electricity Planning in Ontario, Canada

Abstract

Electricity grid adequacy is the ability of the electric system to supply the electricity required at all times, accounting for derates and outages of system components. Ontario’s electricity needs are primarily met by thermal and hydroelectric generators, shown to be impacted by climate conditions. We quantify the effects of climate change on Ontario’s future demand and capacity based on the highest risk climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) for the year 2040. The main climate change variables considered are temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Very minor reductions in summer effective capacity are expected (approximately 0.2%), together with a moderate increase in summer demand (approximately 6%). These results only reflect the impacts of climate change relative to the current climate. Although the Independent Electricity System Operator appears to capture enough variability in their grid adequacy estimates, it may be wise to add additional butter to capture the impact of climate change discovered here.