THE IMPACT OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS OF PROJECTED CANADIAN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL DATA ON FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT

Abstract

This paper presents findings about the influence of projected data from the Canadian regional climate model on the performance of flexible pavement, building upon the results from previous work where the data was generated and published, in which a general trend of decreasing the design life was observed. Projected temperature is the most important extreme climate impact on flexible roads. Adopting a conservative approach demonstrated that two extreme events of Maximum Mean Annual Air Temperature (MMAAT) and Maximum Summer Average Air Temperature (MSAAT) resulted in significant reduction of 25 years road design life. The observed trend indicates a severity range of 7% to 15% in terms of design service life loss when considering events every year compared to every five years. The findings revealed a reduction in pavement design life by 34%, 50%, 73%, and 90% for historical, short, intermediate, and long-term life cycles in the city of Windsor, respectively.