African urbanization trends and prospects

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ep11031.pdf (1.56 MB)

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2013-09-11

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Union for African Population Studies

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The paper aims at analysing and projecting urbanization trends using United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects data, 2007 Revision. A third order polynomial is used to model urban-rural growth difference from 1950 to 2005 country by country. The results of the model are compared to UN projection on urban growth for the period 2010-2050. Using the new model, the African urban population is projected to stagnate around its current level below 40%, with little variations by regions up to 2050, while the UN predicts 62%. The findings suggest that UN projections are excessively high and do not match the level of economic and social development in Africa.

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http://www.bioline.org.br/abstract?id=ep11031
 http://www.bioline.org.br/ep
 http://www.uaps-uepa.org
 http://hdl.handle.net/1807/49271

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African Populations Studies
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