Effectiveness and Cost-effectiveness of Vehicle Lifespan Caps for Reducing Light-duty Vehicle Fleet GHG Emissions in the U.S.

Abstract

Accelerated vehicle turnover gets new technologies on the road faster but increases the rate of vehicle production and purchases. By combining vehicle fleet modelling, life cycle assessment (LCA), and total ownership costing this work estimates the GHG emissions and costs for the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet from 2020 – 2050 under a forced early retirement program. We estimate that under current EV sales projections, even when combined with vehicle light-weighting, fuel consumption improvement, and vehicle size reduction, vehicle lifespan caps are ineffective at reducing GHG emissions. While under a 100% EV sales target by 2035, applying a 12-year lifespan cap on conventional light-duty vehicles can be effective, reducing cumulative GHG emissions from 2020 through 2050 by 6%. However, the abatement costs for this method are high, near 2020 USD 1000/tCO2e, placing either a high burden on the government for providing incentives or markedly increasing average vehicle ownership costs.