Evolving Electric Vehicle Charging Profiles: A Crucial Consideration for Energy System Models

Abstract

The imminent widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) presents new challenges for the electricity sector, requiring careful analysis practices for the design of the future power plant infrastructure. However, previous studies have failed to capture the inter-period evolving nature of EV charging demand, resulting in inaccurate estimations. To address this, a dynamic framework is presented. It involves developing evolving EV charging profiles that consider projections in charging infrastructure accessibility, diffusion of charger types, technical features of EVs, EV adoption trends, and charging strategy adoption. These profiles are then used in an Energy System Optimization Model (ESOM) for analysis. By applying this framework, insights into the future energy sector of the United States by 2050 under a deep light-duty vehicle fleet electrification scenario are gained. The findings reveal considerable differences compared to conventional modeling practices, emphasizing the importance of using evolving EV charging profile assumptions for future energy modeling.